Probability × Impact Scoring
Each risk is scored on two dimensions: Likelihood (how probable is this risk occurring in the next 12 months?) and Impact (how severe would the consequences be if it occurs?). Both are scored on a 1–5 scale:
- Likelihood: 1 = Rare (<5% probability); 2 = Unlikely (5–20%); 3 = Possible (20–50%); 4 = Likely (50–80%); 5 = Almost Certain (>80%)
- Impact: 1 = Negligible (no material effect); 2 = Minor (manageable disruption); 3 = Moderate (significant disruption, recoverable); 4 = Major (business continuity threat); 5 = Catastrophic (existential threat to company)
Risk Rating and Heat Map
Risk Score = Likelihood × Impact (maximum 25). Colour-coded rating: Low (1–4) — monitor annually; Medium (5–9) — review quarterly, assign owner; High (10–16) — active mitigation required, monthly review; Critical (17–25) — immediate action required, board-level escalation. A risk heat map plots all risks on a 5×5 grid (Likelihood on X-axis, Impact on Y-axis), giving the board and senior team a visual summary of the risk landscape. Update the heat map at each quarterly risk review.
Risk Appetite Statement
Before scoring risks, define your risk appetite — the level of risk the company is willing to accept in pursuit of its objectives. Early-stage startups typically have a high risk appetite for strategic risks (innovating in uncertain markets) and a low risk appetite for compliance and financial risks (FEMA violations, GST non-compliance, data breaches). Documenting your risk appetite prevents score inflation — without a reference point, risk owners tend to rate all risks as "Medium" to avoid accountability.